浅析扩内需与当前税收政策的再调整

本文对增值税转型和出口退税政策调整进行了具体分析,认为当前可以通过提高个人所得税费用扣除标准和对中小企业减税,来进一步扩大内需。     

Investigating the role of emissions trading policy to reduce emissions and improve the efficiency of industrial green innovation

Rapid economic development usually leads to serious environmental pollution problems. In order to solve the problem of pollutant emission in sustainable industrial development, it is urgent to examine the implementation effect of emissions trading policy (ETP) and its impact on green industrial development. This study adopts China's ETP as a case study and selects provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018. We first use a non-radial, non-directed, slack-based measure-directional distance function (SBM-DDF) to measure industrial green innovation efficiency. Then we use a difference in differences (DID) model to empirically test the emissions reduction effect of China's policy and whether it promotes industrial green innovation. Thereafter, results show that: (1) the ETP reduces sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions indicating the effectiveness of the policy; (2) the policy significantly improves industrial green innovation efficiency, meaning it promotes the sustainable development of the economy; (3) heterogeneity analysis highlights that ETP produces greater benefits for the most polluted regions of China which have more strict environmental regulations. The study examines the effect of emissions trading policy implementation from a new perspective. The study also provides a reference point for China to further refine its policy mechanisms and for other countries to formulate suitable ETP.     

Decomposing the contribution of migration to poverty reduction: methodology and application to Tanzania

In an economy with migration, poverty changes are composed of a number of forces, including the income gains and losses realized by the various migration streams. We present a simple but powerful decomposition methodology that uses panel data to measure the contributions of different migration streams to overall poverty change. An application to Tanzania shows the new insights that are provided – in particular on the role of migration to secondary towns in poverty reduction.     

Reducing information asymmetry in the auctioning of non-perishable experience goods: The case of online wine auctions

We highlight the importance of reducing the perceived risk associated with information asymmetry for experience goods. We analyse a major online non-perishable experience good, wine, from the seller's perspective. The mechanism for lowering information asymmetry is the verification service offered by the auctioneer. By focusing on unsold items/lots, the wine and auction characteristics affecting the probability of a sale are identified. Results show that the verification of the wine's provenance increases the probability of sale by 5.7 percent and leads to an expected increase of 5.1 percent in the auction price. When both effects are combined, the increase in the expected revenue of the seller is 7.3 percent. We test and find no evidence of selection bias. Given the heterogeneity in wine prices, a quantile regression analysis shows how the results differ for high-priced wines compared to lower priced wines. Results highlight how the mechanisms to lower the degree of information asymmetry work both in attracting bidders to online auctions and encouraging bidders to submit higher bids.     

Representation,estimation and forecasting of the multivariate index-augmented autoregressive model

We examine the conditions under which each individual series that is generated by a vector autoregressive model can be represented as an autoregressive model that is augmented with the lags of a few linear combinations of all the variables in the system. We call this multivariate index-augmented autoregression (MIAAR) modelling. We show that the parameters of the MIAAR can be estimated by a switching algorithm that increases the Gaussian likelihood at each iteration. Since maximum likelihood estimation may perform poorly when the number of parameters increases, we propose a regularized version of our algorithm for handling a medium–large number of time series. We illustrate the usefulness of the MIAAR modelling by both empirical applications and simulations.     

A micro-level insight on trade-induced job polarization and poverty in Russia

The effect of trade liberalization on workers with different skill levels at distinct types of firms is often surmised to be heterogeneous. This paper employs a longitudinal individual-level dataset—the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS)—to study the impact of trade liberalization on the relative poverty of various groups of workers in Russia. More specifically, we use the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the impact of trade liberalization on workers at different skill levels and types of firms. Our analysis reveals significant trade-induced job polarization, meaning that, in the tradable sector, even though employment and wages are increasing for low-wage and the high-wage occupations, they are shrinking for mid-wage occupations, leading to a higher poverty rate for workers seeking employment in mid-wage occupations in that sector. Our results are robust to a battery of robustness checks, and they point to the crucial role of state-owned enterprises in attenuating the adverse effects of trade shocks on the welfare of workers.     

Disentangling economic crisis effects from environmental regulation effects: Implications for sustainable development

With climate change becoming more severe, policy makers must impose environmental regulations that will lead firms to adopt sustainable corporate models. According to the Porter hypothesis, environmental regulation can favour the implementation of business strategies that improve economic and environmental performances. In this study, we examine how one such form of regulation, the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS), impacts firm performance, and we subsequently widen the examination beyond the regulation to evaluate an economic crisis which could potentially confound regulation effects. We estimate a panel model with time- and firm-fixed effects for different subsamples that disentangle the effect of the EU ETS policy from the 2008 economic crisis. The results indicate that the EU ETS policy in its third phase can activate the Porter hypothesis and is effective in fuelling the implementation of sustainable corporate models by firms. However, we also find that the economic crisis neutralises the effects of the regulation on firm performance, precluding the triggering of the Porter hypothesis in severely affected firms.     

The influence of crediting and permanence periods on Australian forest-based carbon offset supply

Governments globally are developing increasingly ambitious carbon emissions reduction schemes that include significant emissions offset credits for forest-based carbon sequestration. Such strategies can present significant challenges in highly modified and intensively farmed regions where forest land use opportunity and establishment costs are high. This article evaluates the economics of land-use change via active afforestation for local carbon abatement in the Australian state of South Australia, a region with high supply costs representative of long-established temperate farming regions. We found that there is no economically viable abatement below $38 tCO₂e⁻¹, however up to 154 Mt CO₂e of abatement could be available up to prices of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹.Variation in current Australian Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF) policy parameters related to permanence and crediting periods were also assessed. Recent ERF contracts involve a 100-year land-use change commitment (permanence period) and a 25-year crediting period where payments for growth in carbon from the land-use change is contracted. We compared outcomes of this arrangement to a scenario with equal 100-year permanence and crediting periods. We found substantial differences in carbon supply at some price points for a 25 rather than a 100-year crediting period. Under ERF parameters the first economically viable revegetation options occur at $42 tCO₂e⁻¹, however, we found a 69 percent reduction in economically viable supply at a carbon price of $50 tCO₂e⁻¹. The results highlight the role offset crediting policy can have on dis-incentivising land-use change and the need for landholders to be compensated fully for temporal opportunity costs.     

Minimizing post-shock forecasting error through aggregation of outside information

We develop a forecasting methodology for providing credible forecasts for time series that have recently undergone a shock. We achieve this by borrowing knowledge from other time series that have undergone similar shocks for which post-shock outcomes are observed. Three shock effect estimators are motivated with the aim of minimizing average forecast risk. We propose risk-reduction propositions that provide conditions that establish when our methodology works. Bootstrap and leave-one-out cross-validation procedures are provided to prospectively assess the performance of our methodology. Several simulated data examples and two real data examples of forecasting Conoco Phillips and Apple stock price are provided for verification and illustration.     

食品理化检验的影响因素及控制管理探讨

在食品理化检验过程中存在很多影响因素,例如人为因素、试剂因素和样本因素等。本文分别描述了影响食品理化检验的因素,并强调了要积极加强实验室质量控制和分析控制工作,提升食品理化检验质量,促进食品质量检验工作效率和工作质量的提升。